The complexity of the world
The scientific revolution is about 500 years old. During this time, humanity has created numerous theories and descriptions of the physical world that have not only made it possible to expand off of the earth but also to unite into a single civilization. The standards of quality life are relatively the same throughout the world. We all value strong currency and well-being, warm water and other amenities in the home, home appliances and means of transportation, access to medicine, and the Internet. For most people, basic or biological needs related to security and sustenance have been resolved.
Science does not stand still, and visionaries predict a cascade of technological revolutions. It can be confusing whether this upcoming industrial or technological revolution is the 4th or 5th, or even the 10th. What is important to us is the trend of human beings having to exert themselves less and less to satisfy their simple needs. The comforts of life that kings did not have before, the majority of the population has in the 21st century. The life of mankind is becoming more and more comfortable due to the development of civilization. Manufacturers are ready to satisfy any desire of the customer and fight among themselves for the consumer. For those who did not grow up in times of scarcity of goods and services might be difficult to understand that there is any other way. Probably, in the same way, in a couple of decades the next generation will wonder how it is possible to get very sick and live less than 100 years.
Despite the qualitative change in the life of all mankind, things do not look so positive at the level of the individual. Many people are not ready to cope with the “happiness” that has fallen upon them. Every advantage of civilization for all humanity has a downside for the individual. If a human being does not understand how to use the positive aspects of progress and avoid its negative impact, they might not find their place in modern society. If that happens, a person lives in constant stress, in a constant “search for himself” and eventually moves away from civilization (downshifting). He may even fight with globalization, being a hostage of black and white pictures of the world about the role of man on the planet.
Let’s consider three pairs of pros and cons of progress.
The first pair of pros and cons of progress is the availability of information on one hand and its overpowering presence on the other. The world has become a single civilization. Information, ideas, theories, and pictures of the world not only have almost no borders but also instantly cross distances. On the other hand, a huge flow of information has fallen upon man. This has led to negative problems: the quality of the information consumed has deteriorated, although the consumption of new information has taken up most of the average person’s life; it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain attention.
Social networks, advertising, entertainment, media, and other information providers, competing for human attention, simplify content in every possible way. As a result, TikTok defeats YouTube, which previously defeated books. Mass demand for simple content provides the financial resources to improve the technical quality and delivery of such content. This is just economics nothing personal, but human development is the duty of individuals.
Information fed in a consumer-friendly way creates the effect of being well-read and knowledgeable, whereas simple pictures of other people’s world are easily brainwashed into “my own opinion” on any subject. Hence, appear couch analysts and experts on psychology, learning, viruses, economics, parenting, treatment, and government. Simple and easily understood from the current level of human development models of the world are suitable for solving simple problems but are not useful for solving complex problems, which means that disappearance in social networks cements the current position of the person. The availability and abundance of information requires the skill of finding and selecting the right quality information for personal development and implementation of projects. This requires the development of thinking skills, including broadening horizons/outlooks.
Consuming any amount of even high-quality information is not enough for rapid self-development. Consuming information does not equal thinking or learning, even if one reads one book after another. By surfing social networks or only reading, a person does not devote enough time to thinking, which is what enhances intelligence. Thinking as a function of the brain manifests itself when a person figures out a new case or new concepts, theories, and models, but at the same time it is necessary to leave traces of their reflections in the form of notes. Reading books and learning complex theories is much better than wasting time on social media, but it is also necessary to practice “thinking by means of writing” in order to assimilate that information.
Only simple models are easily incorporated into the mind, but to master complex theories it is necessary to allocate time for reflection, not only for reading. The time to think about topics of interest can be found by replacing time spent on social media. If there are no topics of interest, which is rare, then you need to expand your horizons, and if you have difficulties writing, which is much more common, then you need to practice “thinking by means of writing”.
Another problem of the information glut is the shortening of attention span. The flow of new information attracts the attention of a person who is struggling with limiting the influence of the social environment. The brain reacts actively to new information, both not lingering on reflection and not wanting to read long texts. Spoiled by easy and accessible content, many people lose the skill of concentrating for long periods of time. Hence, almost all adults atrophy an important student skill — not being distracted by external stimulants. Today, it is very rare to see someone purposefully devote 2 hours each day for several months to learning a difficult practice. However, the skill of holding attention for hours, days, months, and years is essential to establishing habits, new skills, and changing mindsets. Therefore, it is important to limit the entertainment with simple social media content that negatively affects attention-holding time.
The second pair of pros and cons is the simplicity of the world for the user and the complexity for the doer/creator. The users of household technological devices are young children, i.e. users do not need to learn much. But in order to become an in-demand specialist, it is necessary to master complex knowledge and technology. This is the paradox of the simplicity and complexity of the modern world. The variety of products and services with the results of the technological revolution has given convenience, comfort, and ease of use. This has created the illusion of simplicity.
In a consumer society, not only is the “consumer always right,” but the consumer should not be stressed or bothered in any way. A smartphone should be intuitive and easy to use. But who says it has to be that way about everything? For example, why should learning be a pleasant and simple activity or in the form of a game? A person unwittingly transfers the consumerist view to a creative activity.
Of course, there should be a variety of products and services for the consumer, and they should be convenient, comfortable, and easy to use. But the complexity of the world never just goes away. It goes to another level. In order to keep it simple for the consumer, the developer must take all the complexity for himself, and specifically to spend resources of time and money to create a product that is functional and easy to use. The consumer also needs to be on guard: “What can be phrased and expressed in a clear narrative that convinces suckers will be a sucker trap.” (Nassim Taleb).
The constant increase in competition leads, to better products and services, but, in exchange the complexity of technologies and theories regularly increases. Simple and consumer-friendly products are becoming more and more complex in their design and in their creation. The world appears to be simple, but in reality, it is becoming more and more complex. The competition is not so much in technologies, but in the disciplines and scientific schools that create the best practices, on the basis of which complex systems are then created.
Global corporations remain leaders not just because they produce the best goods and services or because they have the best technology to produce goods and services. Products and technology are the clear and only visible part. Behind these better products and new technologies are methodologies, methods, or skills that the world leaders are constantly developing. The Japanese were the first to realize this when they invested in continuous quality methodology in the middle of the last century. Most people in the world notice quality Japanese products and technologies, and meanwhile all this is possible because the Japanese have created the world’s best quality schools. These schools do not produce products and technologies, they produce best practices — lean, kanban, Toyota quality management, and others.
With the help of these practices, technologies and then goods are created. Competition leads not only to a variety of products and ease of use, but it is also a catalyst for the increasing complexity of theories, methods, and practices. Humans, in order to exist comfortably in the new world, will need to learn to love complexity rather than avoid it. The desire for simplicity is the thinking of the masses and consumers, while the love of complexity is the thinking of the doer/creator.
The third pair has to do with the coming widespread automation (AI/robotization), which will bring even greater prosperity to humanity as a whole but will require even more effort from the individual to compete with others for the jobs that remain. Back in the last century, people were given one profession for life. Over time, most people will realize that regular zeroing (reset) on experience and retraining is the norm of modern life.
The trend toward displacing humans from systems in which they recently played a leading role is intensifying in the twenty-first century. For example, man was a “cog in the system” of the conveyor era, but now the conveyor is the domain of robots. We are on the verge of replacing humans as drivers. The role of the driver in the system “car” will certainly remain, but it will be played by artificial intelligence, not human intelligence. Can you look around and think about why the roles that are still being performed by humans cannot yet be performed by artificial intelligence? For example, a robot has already been taught to write music. What skills are unique to humans and inaccessible to robots? What professions will be in demand in the future and for how long is difficult to say now, so the way out is to strengthen intelligence, which will allow rapid learning of new and complex skills.
Social stratification
The main trends in the development of civilization show that there will be more and more evident stratification between the intellectual minority and the consuming population i.e between doers/creators and consumers. It is impossible to predict the general level of education of the population: it may not change much. The division will be in the behavior of people.
- The behavior of the doer will be aimed at constantly solving more and more complex problems, broadening their horizons and obtaining complex interests, creating better and better products (services), learning and discovering new methods, theories, and transdisciplines, which defer joy in life (a doer thinks in terms of investments, including investing time or creating complex technologies and transdisciplines that take time to master).
- Consumer behavior is, on the contrary, avoidance of complexity, craving for the tried and true, constantly consuming information instead of creating content and products, learning only what is intuitive, and brings quick results.
We have taken apart the physical, or visible, advantages of civilization. Nevertheless, the main advantage of civilization is that it has given us free time. In ancient times, only wealthy people had free time for leisure so they could consciously study science and the arts or explore the world. The rest of the population needed to spend time on survival. Nowadays, survival issues do not require working from dawn to dusk. Modern civilized human beings have plenty of time that can be used in a variety of ways. Some people don’t even have enough time to satisfy their endless interests, while others don’t know where to invest their time and what to occupy themselves with. In the future, the amount of so-called free time, that is, the time when people have to occupy themselves, will only increase. For example, there are already conversations going around about a four-day work week or a basic income that would be paid to everyone, regardless of their work activity.
The intellectual invests time in broadening horizons and learning skills, while the consumer spends time passively consuming information (e.g., TV and social media) and wasting attention on social stereotypes (following the lives of the rich and successful). The intellectual has complex interests, for example, related to work and study, research and learning. The consumer satisfies proven and simple interests that are related to biological needs or culturally established patterns. For example, they spend all their free time on social networks, watching videos, and socializing casually.
The intellectual forms their picture of the world from the various best theories of mankind, which requires mental effort and concentration. The consumer uses standardized pictures of the world, which someone has simplified and made understandable so that a person does not spend any effort in mastering and applying them. The intellectual will create products and services demanded by consumers, while consumers will be at risk of losing their jobs and saving up money to buy the next innovations. The intellectual, satisfying complex interests and endlessly evolving, lives an interesting life. The consumer, having only simple interests, always dreams of more, but does not change their behavior and is therefore content with what he has.
The complexity of new disciplines and theories will have to be mastered by all those who do not want to be mere consumers. If one becomes a doer who changes the world and creates systems, one will have to take the complexity upon oneself. Increased competition leads to an increasingly easier and simpler life for the consumer (if resources are available), but the doer, on the contrary, has to take on more and more complex tasks. The consumerist view should not be confused with the doer’s view. For example, if you want, as a student, to learn more easily, then you have clearly confused the role of the consumer with the role of the doer that you want to become in the process of learning.
The pros and cons of progress show that there will be a stratification of society into those who will be able to use the positives and cope with the negatives, and those who will partially use the positives, but will not even be able to recognize the negatives and will not change their way of life. The watershed will be in the content and complexity of the consumed content, in the attitude to complexity, in the time to retain attention and concentration on goals, in the regularity of “thinking by means of writing”, in the ability to quickly learn new things from scratch and be confident in the future, in the use of free time. To be a figure who lives an interesting life, you have to choose the right side of the watershed between the intellectual minority and the consuming population.
In addition, it is important to mention another characteristic that will play a role in the stratification of society if it has not already played a big role. Despite technological advances, humanity has not made progress in finding reward within itself. Even in the time of Buddha he spoke of happiness within man, but still a large proportion of people consider themselves unhappy and do not derive joy from life. A doer should be able to experience joy regardless of external circumstances. Meaning not to be hostage to biological needs and imposed social stereotypes, but to consciously shape one’s own interests and endlessly develop one’s life skills to satisfy broad interests and create successful systems for other people. That way the doer will be confident about the future. We may be on the verge of a massive change that will create discomfort for many people. Mankind gladly moved to automobiles, but what was going on in the minds of carriage drivers can only be guessed. Certainly, none of us would want to experience the same.
Rapid change of the world leads to the fact that a person’s world pictures no longer correspond to reality, and life mastery does not allow to satisfy needs, a person does not get satisfaction and joy. Therefore burnout, stress, lack of purpose and meaning of any activity take place. This is a hopeless situation and it is quite difficult to get out of it, but it is possible not to get into it. This is what the course “Introduction to Systems Thinking” is about.
Consumers are more at risk of losing their bearings in life because they cling to old models of the world and lack the skill to deal with the complexity of the world. Moreover, cognition of the world is not a person’s main concern, human beings are more concerned with getting rid of trouble and anxiety, as well as reproduction.
Therefore, consumers will increasingly be faced with a situation where their personal picture of the world does not correspond to the current reality. Kids are happy to integrate into the world, while adults, as they age, consume more and more information about the past or avoid the new and complex, they do not integrate new information or information that is counterintuitive to them into their picture of the world. Despite age, you can be a consumer at 20, but you can be a doer at 80.